2018-01-11 21:49:28
本帖最后由 后羿A射日 于 2018-1-11 09:56 编辑


Submission Statement:


A good (if not somewhat circumstantial) read on howChina's attempts to become a global leader seems to be coinciding with the USretreat into nationalism and protectionism. The author argues that China is increasinglyattempting to take global center-stage on a number of issues (environment,trade) and the lack of a concerted effort by other global players is givingChina the impetus to fill the void left by the United States. That said, in theface of a variety of issues faced by China (pollution, authoritarianism, etc),this global emergence may not happen any time soon.


On the flip side, the article is somewhatone-dimensional.


An illuminating paragraph that also summarizes thearticle.


In a speech to Communist Party officials last January 20th, MajorGeneral Jin Yinan, a strategist at China’s National Defense University,celebrated America’s pullout from the trade deal. “We are quiet about it,” hesaid. “We repeatedly state that Trump ‘harms China.’ We want to keep it thatway. In fact, he has given China a huge gift. That is the American withdrawalfrom T.P.P.” Jin, whose remarks later circulated, told his audience, “As theU.S. retreats globally, China shows up.”

Man, this is what a submission statement shouldlook like! Succinct summary, basic analysis, well chosen quotation. Thanks fordoing it so right!


Why would authoritarism be an issue that would stopChina from becoming a world power? The USSR was a world power not long ago andwas just as authoritative.


I really don't see any of the big democracies"agreeing to play by China's rules" if China keeps their attack onfree speech and human rights in general.



You think big democracies agreed to live by theUS's rules because they thought it was a moral beacon of freedom, respect andhuman rights? No, it's because they had big ass armed forces that allowed themto avoid spending so much on military themselves and because it lent them moneycheap. That's why they looked the other way with Guantánamo, the severalneo-colonial wars they fought and the several times they overthrewdemocratically elected governments throughout the world because they didn'tlike it.


The world is already playing by China's rules.
If the western countries truly cared about humanrights violations, they would put an outright ban on imports from China.
But since China is the production power house ofthe world, and people like cheap products, this will never happen.
China is one Hollywood away from becoming a realsuperpower, and by the looks of it, they seem pretty darn determined ofcreating a Hollywood of their own to export their culture. Not to mention howHollywood itself is trying to adapt their movies for the Chinese market.


If the western countries truly cared about humanrights violations they would likely stop committing them.


If you are an economic super power then it doesn'tmatter if people "acknowledge" it, the power doesn't come from theacknowledgement. I don't think there's ever been an economic superpower who gotthere any way besides brute force.


I am not a trump fan but I am glad the us isstepping back. We need to spend more on butter and less on guns, use our wealthto help our own people like Western Europe does instead of using it to projectmilitary force.


Only problem is, he's not cutting down on"guns", but rather things like foreign aid, UN memberships, etc. He'sasking for more guns, as a matter of fact.


The problem with authoritarianism is that it is alot of power concentrated in a very few individuals. If those individuals makethe wrong decision(s) or are simply capricious, the superpower status becomesdifficult to maintain. If China continues to have broad economic success, it isnot at all clear to me that the growing wealthy class there will be content notto have political power. How the authoritarians in China accommodate thoseaspirations could have a significant impact on its chances on the world stage.


You brought up the USSR. By the end it was abankrupt shell pretending to be a superpower. Having all decisions top-downappears to me to have been a significant contributing factor to its economicfailure. It collapsed when the pretense could no longer be sustained.


Meanwhile, I count the U.S. as down but not out. Achange in politics plus a surge in cheap energy could bring the U.S. back outon top. I also readily admit that the 21st century could well be the centuryChina fully emerges as the dominant superpower. We live in interesting times.


You could argue authoritarian governments areinherently less stable than democratic governments because they are (typically)less representative of their citizens? There are demands within China forgreater representation? I'm not sure.


Functioning democratic governments tend to haverelatively calm transition of power. That’s always a plus for stability. Thelast transition of power in China would be more enjoyable if it were a mere TVdrama personally speaking.


Even when China was great, and for most of fourthousand years, China was the place to trade with, the various Chinese governmentshave never engaged with the outside world terribly much.


China sold tea, silks and porcelain to traders inexchange for silver. They wouldn't take trade goods.
At least until the British fought a war so thatthey could sell the Chinese opium, China only accepted hard currency inexchange for their trade goods.


The impressive treasure fleet of Zheng He traveledthroughout the Indian Ocean tradeways, establishing trading missions. But theEmperor changed his mind and had the fleets burned.


China has always been a big entity, and capable ofself-sufficiency. China has always been able to feed itself, provide enoughfuel, minerals and fiber for whatever it needed. Outside trade was only a wayof accumulating wealth, it was never a necessity to actually engagemeaningfully.


Finally, after centuries the global andtechnological situation has changed enough for China to seek to engage theworld.


[-]delaynomoar 46 points 8 days ago
... until they are hit with the next internalpolitical turmoil. That's the general pattern pretty much since the Han dynasty(territorial expansion - internal political turmoil - retreat).
I'll let you guys decide how long you think thisterritorially-massive multi-ethnic centralized authoritarian one-party statewill last.


And how long do you think any democratic stateright now would last without a major revolution coming their way? You seem tohave an unfounded confidence that internal political turmoil will never be aproblem for democratic systems.


Keep in mind the most robust and prosperousdynasties in Chinese history lasted longer than any democratic institutions inthe world at the moment. There is plenty of time for things to go wrong, andsigns are already showing.


The US democratic institutions survived the GreatDepression. It’s no small feat given the scale. I don’t think the Chinesegovernment today were to face the same challenge can make it. They aren’t anyoutlets for people to vent their everyday frustrations or miseries for one thing.It will end up as a pressure cooker waiting to implode.


And some of those robust prosperous dynasties takesseveral generations to finally die off in long drawn out power struggle. Iwon’t count the beginnings and ends as good times.


All speculations at this point. If all fails, theChinese government always has the option to wage a US style civil war. The factremains that no democratic institution has lasted very long at this point.There is no historical precedent, and it is overly optimistic to project anylong-term stability.


You can say the same for the state of working-classAmericans and British people. They responded by voting for Trump and Brexit.Are things getting better for them? No. In fact, they voted against theirinterest, and their everyday frustrations will only deepen by the choices oftheir own making. It's a vicious cycle, and it might get worse.


Given each of our limited lifespan, I’ll pick oneof the stable western democracies i.e. Canada to live out my life like manyChinese nationals have done. Like them, l’ve decided the odds are better outthere.


I’m using the Great Depression era as a specificexample, don’t drag in Trump and Brexit. Ask yourself instead how will theChinese working class get through an economic depression.


No. What you really want is to live in a developedand rich country. Don’t conflate that with democracy.
You should read some history on how the US gotitself out of depression. A hint: it’s done through national planning.


Like you won't want to park your money at a placewith rule of law?


Yes. I know. I have nothing against that :)


China never feel itself as multi-ethnic as othersthink it would be. Do you think the "political turmoil" isdemocratization like "Arab Spring"? why it will weaken China?


It's actually rather interesting. Korean-Chineseget discriminated by the Koreans. Inner Mongols get discriminated byMongolians. Manchurians are some of the most nationalistic people in China(although they often clash with the Han over the role of the Qing, with manyManchus viewing it as good, saving China from collapse of the Ming, and theearly half being a Golden Age. The Han focus on the Manchu supremacy/racism,economic and technological stagnation and it's failures in the Century ofHumiliation).


Many of the other minorities despite maintaing someaesthetic components of their culture have been sufficiently sinicised thatthey don't feel different (that's not to say there aren't problems, they'rejust minor).


Tibetans...well, I don't know, but if China iskeeping a heavy hand over the region, it's probably not so great. Then we haveXinjiang. Very interesting. Mostly Central Asians, with the Uyghurs hating theHan (vice versa) and the other groups hating Uyghurs (while being neutral tothe Han).


Arab Spring is antigovernment for sure, but it’shardly pro-democracy. When I speak of potential political turmoil, I don’t havedemand for democracy in mind. The current regime is very good at turning peopleagainst the idea, Trump helps too. Is China immune to political turmoil? Ifnot, then I presume it could be weaken by it.


it's a problem has had for as long as it has beenin the sun. When the difference between the elites and the common man grows toobroad and the peasant's revolt, China's current regime falls out of favor ofthe light of the sun as the next administration says


"favor of the light of the sun"? I thinkyou mean "the mandate of heaven"

A little experiment with constitutional federalismmight break the cycle. How many more time do we need to repeat the cycle toprove that a highly-centralized government in a country of China's size andethnic makeup would fail in the long run?
This is not counting the cost of human livesinvolved in maintaining a centralized regime.


THe problem is that 'experimenting' with Chinamight lead to another collapse...


Mongol incursions up north was sapping the treasuryso they decided to switch tack :/
One reason they went out was to find superiorcivilisations (since they thought China fell behind during the Yuan)...andfound no one...


They actually had some rather...interesting(sometimes racist) views:


Indians- stingy, but smart. Drives a hard bargain,but will honor the deal. Rich place, good country to trade in. Rich in spices.Willing to provide water and food resupplies.


Arabs - A bit brutal, but has a rich culture.Pretty rich place too but not as wealthy as China nor India. Good place forbooks. Pretty advanced. Zheng He was muslim so he was happy. He did have todefuse a situation when one of his crew insulted a Mosque...


Sri Lankans - fuck these rude dickheads


SEA - Good market place, attractive women, calm andwise rulers .


Africa - ...use your imagination. It wasn't verynice. The places were poor, weren't technologically or culture advanced,locations desolate, nothing really to trade or give as tribute... An AfricanKing feared invasion... Oh an interesting tidbit, a treasure ship crashedonshore, the survivors swam aboard, took African wives (after converting toIslam) and their descendants look a tad Chinese to this day (the eyes..and theporcelain found...and the gravesites...)


As an American expat living in China, the averagecitizen I talk to is emphatic about how strong China is. They know they are upand coming and they absolutely believe they will over take the US in allaspects of power and influence. They are very patriotic.


Ha! And how many of them will be sending their sonsto fight wars in foreign lands to maintain a hypothetical Pax Sinica? They likethe idea not the responsibilities.


From what I gather, at least with the locals I speakwith... They see the 21st century as their century. My colleague sees China asthe leader the world needs and he says "we are the savior of Europeancolonialism in Africa". They don't see themselves as Team China WorldPolice now, but in the near future - absolutely yes.


This article seems strange to me. There's thisweird narrative of China embracing progress and representing a future worldleader but from my reading the only thing they've embraced is free trade. Theytalk about authoritarianism but it seems like it's not really criticised in anyway. It just seems very deeply ideologically tinged with free-market worship.
Maybe the author is just one of the people for whomTrump's protectionism seems the worst aspect of him.


He said their embrace of free trade is"ironic"


Xi reiterated his support for the Paris climatedeal and compared protectionism to “locking oneself in a dark room.” He said,“No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war.” This was an ironicperformance—for decades, China has relied on protectionism—but Trump providedan irresistible opening.

and there is this paragraph:


Across Asia, there is wariness of China’sintentions. Under the Belt and Road Initiative, it has loaned so much money toits neighbors that critics liken the debt to a form of imperialism. When SriLanka couldn’t repay loans on a deepwater port, China took majority ownershipof the project, stirring protests about interference in Sri Lanka’ssovereignty. China also has a reputation for taking punitive economic actionwhen a smaller country offends its politics. After the Nobel Prize was awardedto the dissident Liu Xiaobo, China stopped trade talks with Norway for nearlyseven years; during a territorial dispute with the Philippines, China cut offbanana imports; in a dispute with South Korea, it restricted tourism and closedKorean discount stores.
“在亚洲,中国比较谨慎。在“一带一路”倡议下,中国向邻国提供了很多贷款,批评者把这些债务比喻成一种帝国主义。当斯里兰卡无法偿还深水港的贷款时,中国获得了该项目的大部分所有权,激起了关于斯里兰卡主权被干涉的抗议。中国还因为经济惩罚政治冒犯的小国家而出名。诺贝尔奖颁发给异议人士后,中国停止了与挪威的贸易谈判近七年,在与菲律宾的领土争端中,中国切断香蕉进口; 在与韩国的争端中,中国限制了旅游业,关闭了韩国的折扣店。”

This paragraph alone suggests that the author believesChina isn't really good at this world-leadership thingy, what more are youlooking for? Calling Evan Osno "deeply ideologically tinged withfree-market worship" and that he didn't criticized authoritarianism ismischaracterization of his body of work. He called out Xi's cult of personalitya couple years ago and got push back for it. People accused him of"red-mongering" but damn it if time has proven him right.


This article overlooks a few issues.


One of the biggest is that China is much more longterm oriented than the US. In America it is always a short term orientation.Quarterly profits, the next election, etc, and often policy that is yieldsshort term gains at the expense of much greater long term harm passes. China ismore long term oriented.


On trade China is running a huge trade surplus anda largely mercantilist trade policy whereas the US has huge and unsustainabletrade deficits. China is mostly running surpluses with the nations it tradeswith. Trade surpluses is WHY China has become so powerful to begin with.


Amongst the developed nations, I'd say thatGermany, Japan, South Korea, the Nordic nations, and Switzerland are doingwell.


The issue is that increased trade with China willmean increased trade deficits. That will create tensions with anyone trading,the way that Germany has created tensions with its massive current accountsurplus. In the case of China's relationships with some African nations, therehas been some pushback already.


Another consideration is that the amount of moneythat is being spent in foreign aid would not pass in the current politicalclimate. While Trump is awful, even if say, Obama were in for a third term,hypothetically, he would have struggled to pass a foreign aid package on thescale available to China. There is the the question of if it would be betterspent on domestic priorities.


Finally there is also the matter that growth inChina is starting to decline. It seems to have hit point of inflection yearsago. To be sure, the rate of growth is still very high but it is slowing down.
The article seems to have a very liberal bias, inthat it seems to believe that only a Western or perhaps American styledemocracy can be a superpower.


The problem with authoritarianism is that it is alot of power concentrated in a very few individuals. If those individuals makethe wrong decision(s) or are simply capricious, the superpower status becomesdifficult to maintain. If China continues to have broad economic success, it isnot at all clear to me that the growing wealthy class there will be content notto have political power. How the authoritarians in China accommodate thoseaspirations could have a significant impact on its chances on the world stage.

当年克林顿就是这么想的 然后开放了对华经济贸易和一般技术交流的大门

一个是存在了五千年的文明 而另一个是从诞生到现在而且问题不断 并且制造了大量人道危机的100年不到所谓皿煮制度?是个脑子清醒的人都知道该选择什么
[-]delaynomoar 46 points 8 days ago

... until they are hit with the next internalpolitical turmoil. That's the general pattern pretty much since the Han dynasty(territorial expansion - internal political turmoil - retreat).

I'll let you guys decide how long you think thisterritorially-massive multi-ethnic centralized authoritarian one-party statewill last.







嗯 一群没事做的白痴在论坛里充当键盘侠夸夸其谈

不过我喜欢 毕竟白痴是自我堕落




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